Luck has always played a significant part
in Biggles’ life. There are countless times where he relies solely on luck when
making a landing under dubious circumstances, or when escaping from somewhere,
or when taking on a mission that might get him killed.
But never has there been a book as
dependent on luck as Flies East. Reading
it, you have to marvel at the impossible odds that put Biggles in the positions
he ultimately found himself in.
An example: the Broglace affair.
Biggles is in London, home on leave from
France, at the start of the book. The odds of this single event happening are,
to say the least, slim. Remember how Major Mullen had to threaten to send
Biggles off to fly a desk before he would consent to take leave?
So, okay, a hundred in one chance that
Biggles actually was in London during the time that Brunow got cashiered. Unlikely,
but not impossible odds, I agree. Let’s keep going.
The odds that Biggles would choose to eat
at the Caprice Restaurant, once he was in London, were probably pretty high,
despite his misgivings that his leave might be cancelled due to his lack of
uniform. The restaurant was, after all, a popular hangout for RFC officers.
However, the fact that he went during a time that Broglace was also there and
expecting to find Brunow, and wearing
civilian clothes as a result of sending his uniform to the tailor (leading
Broglace to make the remark about him being in mufti)—those odds have to be at least a thousand to one. (By the way,
one has to wonder whether Brunow did
actually show up at said restaurant perhaps an hour or two after Biggles’
meeting with Broglace? That would have been the most incredibly bad timing ever.)
The odds of Biggles looking like Brunow? Seriously?
Super super low odds, although it is
possible that Broglace only had a description or a very bad photo to go on,
which was why he made his mistake.
The odds that Biggles would follow the
affair up like a dog with a bone instead of leaving it alone like a normal
person? Um. Well, I’ll give you that one. Biggles was never one to let sleeping
dogs lie about anything. Even
something that might almost get him killed.
My point? It wasn’t just one bout of bad
luck that led Biggles into this. It was lots and lots of bad luck—astronomical odds, judging from the
reasoning above.
Another example, this one of incredibly
good luck: blowing up the waterworks at Zabala.
The fact that the bomb itself was not
discovered was already quite good luck—it could have been seen by Von Stalhein
when Biggles came in to land and dropped it on the ground (so that it would not
be found on his person), Biggles could have been seen when he went out later
that night to retrieve it, or—and it really is due to very good luck that this
didn’t happen—the Count could have found it when he dropped into Biggles’ room
for his little chat, although I will allow that Biggles did some very quick
thinking on his feet.
(The blowing up of the waterworks was
actually really really good luck for Algy, since it took out the archie and the
searchlights he was up against when dropping his message to Biggles. But that
is beside the point.)
Then we have the mini run of bad luck where
Biggles’ ring is found near the ruined waterworks, but we have extremely good luck to counter this—the fact that
Leffens tried to shoot Biggles down the day before, but was shot down by
Biggles, who ended up taking his [Leffens’] ring, so he now has a cover for why
his [Biggles’] ring was found near the waterworks. Just reading this should be
confusing enough—imagine all the amounts of luck that went into making it
happen! If Biggles had done anything just a little
bit differently, he might not have lived to tell the tale.
My point (yes, I do have one) is that a lot of the events in Flies East seem to rely on, or are tightly
intertwined with, luck—good and bad. It’s
almost unbelievable that something so so so
unlikely to happen to someone actually did
happen to someone. And not just one impossible event, but several. That Biggles
(and Algy) both made it out of Flies East
alive is possibly proof that the universe was looking out for them in some way.
Biggles is lucky. But he also makes his own luck by choosing certain options. If you try to calculate the odds of particular events occuring, they can be astronomical. But if you try to calculate how likely a coincidence (unspecified, rather than a particular coincidence)is, the odds are much, much less.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the odds are lower if calculated that way, but still not too common.
ReplyDeleteAnd if you added up all the coincidences ever to happen in all of the Biggles books...well, you could break a computer trying to work out the odds...
It's even more mind-blowing when you consider Biggles was 18 when he went head to head with Von Stalhein for the first time! EIGHTEEN. Barely old enough to know how to use a razor without cutting his chin and yet able to outwit the most shrewd officer in German Intelligence who had already succeeded in tricking higher command into thinking he was as British as they come and fighting against El Shereef.
ReplyDeleteI _adore_ Sees it Through for the very reason that Biggles has the worst possible luck! I felt very sorry for him after he knocked his head in the avalanche and had to fly all the way back once he realised the documents were in his jacket pocket buried somewhere under the snow.